This has been a year for numbers. COVID states have been a collective obsession. Vote percentages surprising. Hours spent online ... unending. The Royal Statistical Society has run the numbers and has voted for its Stats of the Year. That’s the focus of this episode Stats and Stories with guest Jennifer Rogers.
Rogers is an experienced statistical consultant who has a special interest in the development and application of novel statistical methodologies, particularly in medicine, although her portfolio of clients cuts across a wide variety of applications. She works alongside other statisticians, clinicians, computer scientists, industry experts and regulators.
Rogers is Vice President for Statistical Research and Consultancy at PHASTAR, a global contract research organisation. Rogers directs the statistical research strategy, helping the company stay at the cutting edge of new methodological advances. Rogers also regularly works with journalists to improve the reporting of statistics in the media. She is a popular statistics presenter and can often be heard on the Radio or seen on TV screens. She has made a number of appearances on BBC Radio 4's More or Less and appeared on series 42 of BBC Watchdog where she presented their "Best or Worst" segment.
+Full Transcript
Rosemary Pennington: This has been a year for numbers, COVID stats have been a collective obsession. Vote percentages surprising hours spent on online unending. The Royal statistical society has run the numbers and has voted for its stats of the year, that's the focus of this episode of stats and stories where we explore the statistics behind the stories, and the stories behind the statistics, I'm Rosemary Pennington stats and stories is a production of Miami University's Department of Statistics and media journalism and film, as well as the American Statistical Association. Joining me were our regular panelist John Bailer, Chair of Miami statistics department and Richard Campbell, Professor Emeritus of media journalism and film. Our guest today is Professor Jennifer Rogers Rogers served as chair of the RSS judging panel, and is RSS Vice President for external affairs. She's also head of statistical research and consultancy at firstar jen thank you so much for being here.
Jen Rogers: Thank you. Nice to be here
Pennington: So I know that the RSS votes for UK statistic and an international statistic, so I will just ask you to talk about what you voted as the international statistic of the year.
Rogers: Yes, so our international statistic of the year was 332 days. Now this is the length of time between scientists publishing the genetic sequence of COVID-19 that was on the 11th of January, and an effective vaccine being administered as part of a vaccine program which happened on the eighth of December.
Pennington: So what makes this remarkable.
Rogers: I think it's been the speed at which this has happened. It's been a massive achievement globally for the scientific community. And I think we've all seen some harrowing statistics throughout 2020 but this statistic, I think, really given us some hope for 2021 and when we saw that first vaccine being administered, we could all breathe a huge sigh of relief and maybe start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Richard Campbell: I know in your work, you talk to the media a lot about the sort of repercussions of vaccines and we live, we live in an age certainly here in the states where a lot of people are anxious about getting whether they should be vaccinated or not there's that sort of fear. So, what are you doing, and in the UK to to deal with that.
Rogers: Yeah, I think that the unprecedented speed is a wonderful thing but it also does create a little bit of suspicion in some people's minds. I think some people think that fast means that we've cut corners or we've missed things out. and I'm really trying to work with the media to communicate the fact that that isn't the case, you know when you're designing clinical studies. There's lots of different steps and they typically happen sequentially, you wouldn't start manufacturing your vaccine for example until you knew it worked, but because here we've got a situation where every single day there are no numerous deaths. Everyone's really doing all that they can to speed up that process. And so for example, the vaccine has been manufactured many months before we even knew whether or not it worked, meaning that when it was licensed or given approval, we could start administering it straight away. I always like to think of the analogy of building a house, there's lots of different steps to building a house, and you can do them all, one after another, or there are certain things that you can do at the same time, and that speeds up the whole process without actually then affecting the integrity of the structure at the end and we've got the same thing here in clinical trials, there are certain things that could all be happening at the same time, we have different phases of studies, you could be designing your next phase whilst your first phase is going on, for example, And it just helps to speed up the process. They didn't have to apply for lots of research funding and things like that. It doesn't mean that quarters have been cut and it doesn't mean that any steps have been missed out and I think that's crucial to remember.
Bailer: I think that what's so interesting for me is that you're having the committee choose this one as the international standard, the years that it feels hopeful in a way that a lot of COVID stats Have not when you're talking about answering Richard's question. You mentioned sort of like the unending number of deaths that we sort of are seeing and I know that deaths are a focus of another one of the stats that you voted on. But I just feel like that it's such an interesting choice so I wonder if you could talk about if there was, you know why the panel chose specifically like this particular one, whether it was because of this idea of of moving that conversation away from the, the unending unceasing death toll which we sit with, you know, we can we can never sort of get away from, I think.
Rogers: Yeah, I think we really wanted to have something in that that was a cause for celebration and I think that this, this really is. And also the fact that when will we get a vaccine, has been a question that has come up over and over and over again. When we pick these statistics we do want to try and think about what have been the main topics of conversation throughout the year. And I do think that when are we going to get us. When are we going to get a vaccine really has been one of those questions that has come up repeatedly.
Campbell: I just, I was hoping to get a little more context for why 332 is, is so amazing. You know, so if you could talk, you know what's typical for the, the approval process from kind of the sequencing to administering for other vaccines, or for maybe just general pharmaceutical development.
Rogers: I mean these processes can take years and years you know you develop your new vaccine or drug or intervention, whatever it is, and there's lots of different phases that it has to go through in every single step of the way that has to be done in conversation with the regulators, even just designing one bit of the study could take up to six months if you were having conversations with regulators and going back and forth and you weren't necessarily a priority. But if you all of a sudden plug all of your resources into trying to make sure that those conversations happen as quickly as possible, and those decisions are made as quickly as possible, amazing things can be achieved and I do think that this really highlights that that that it has been the coming together of the best of science, and I just think it really is something to celebrate tragedy, I'm imagining there weren't a lot of arguments about what the stat of the year was going to be as that might have happened in other years because you, you did have some consensus that you wanted to offer more hopeful statistics and this.
Bailer: This certainly was one. And, and then the speed at which it happened i think is another indication of why wire was chosen. But typically what are what might be some of the challenges that the committee faces, or their arguments are you. What's, what's that process like,
Rogers: Well, usually we do it all and sit in a room with a few glasses of wine and yeah there are a few discussions. I mean it was made a little bit more difficult this year having to do it, virtually over zoom those sorts of judging can be a little bit more complicated in those sorts of situations but yeah we really try and think about what have been the main topics of conversation this year what has defined the year. We also you'd like to try and get a mix of both positives and maybe some negative stories, and also. What is surprising, you know, what might you not quite have thought about or what might you look at it and think, oh wow I never thought it would have been that big or something like that and I do think that we've managed to achieve that, with our statistics this year. We knew sitting down that yes COVID was gonna be a very big story and it was, you know, we're gonna have a lot of COVID statistics. But I think what we've managed to do with our stats this year is really paint a picture of the fact that COVID hasn't been the same for everybody. There's big been big discrepancies globally in people's experiences of the pandemic some positive stories like this vaccine, but also there have been some negative stories as well. Jen,
Pennington: So since you mentioned the negative in Ohio, where Richard john and i are. They're just now beginning to roll out vaccinations and nursing homes. A very vulnerable population so I wonder if you could talk about your UK stat of the year deals with COVID in care homes so do you want to talk about that one.
Rogers: Yeah, so about the UK stat of the year was 17,750. And it was the number of excess deaths across a four week period from the fourth of April to the first of May, it was really when we had our biggest peak of excess deaths and yeah they were excess deaths that happened in care homes. It was 200% higher than the total number of deaths and care homes was 200% higher than the five year average compared with 85% higher in, in the home or in the community, and 65% higher in hospitals. Now, we really wanted to promote this statistic because it highlights the importance of data quality and data transparency, over here in the UK, the early days of the pandemic. Our news was full of footage from overcrowded hospitals in Italy. But there was devastation taking place in the UK off camera. The government didn't even start including her home deaths and the daily death count until the 29th of April. So all of this information was just being hidden from the world, and we have this hidden story from the first wave of the pandemic that the worst effects are being felt in care homes, and it just really highlights the importance of, as I said data quality and data transparency, and you know I think most people would have expected these numbers to be bad, but i i think it may come as a shock to a lot of people just how high these figures were.
Campbell: One thing I noticed in that statistic was it was higher in England and Wales than it was in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Why is that,
Rogers: I don't know, but I think about that again. You know I always like to say about statistics, is that they don't end stories, they sort of start the mend. And I, I'm always. I'm always wary of trying to come up with a story as to why something might be happening. Whereas, you know, when I don't actually know the answer to it but I think they're great starters for future things that you need to take a look at. And, yeah, I think there's, there's been a real surge in this this year particular as to the role of statisticians and the role of data in trying to explore this current situation and try and figure out what might be going on.
Bailer: That's a great quote I like, I like that a lot. You know, I thought that the use of excess deaths was something that really can I hadn't seen covered in the press until this year. And I think it was , it was one of those times that, all of a sudden it's like well you know okay we can't. We're not going to argue about whether or not. In this individual case or not it was called that COVID caused this, but if you just compare what's happening now, to what we've seen in the past. This is what's happening so you know what do you think about that kind of framing and focus as this story emerged.
Rogers: It's been really interesting actually because, not just looking at COVID, not looking at excess deaths, we had a period in the UK, where we were seeing excess deaths, not just through. We were seeing excess deaths, not necessarily just caused by COVID. They weren't accounting for all of the excess deaths that we were seeing, we were seeing excess non COVID deaths and having that insight was really useful in then communicating to the general public that, you know, for example hospitals weren't closed, we've had a lot of people weren't going to hospital because they were scared of going to hospital because they may catch COVID. And we've really seen a knock on effect of routine operations then being canceled people's cancer treatments then being canceled, you know, framing it in terms of excess deaths. Overall, allows us to look and identify those extra issues that are non COVID that we wouldn't have seen, if we just looked at COVID deaths.
PenningtonYou're listening to stats and stories and today we're talking about the Royal statistical society's stats of the year with RSS and vice president for external affairs. Jen Rogers. Jen, we are doing this podcast via zoom. And you know, as wonderful as it's been to be able to continue the podcast and certainly has raised difficulties, as in managing Richard and gentlemen. It's a little easier when we're all in a studio together, but I was shocked by the statistic concerning zoom, that you chose as your highly commended international stat of the year, could you talk about that
Rogers: Well globally. This year, 5.5, million years will have been spent on zoom, it's about 3 trillion minutes is just, yeah. Incredible. You know, we've really seen this culture shift with chunks of our lives now being played out online because of the coronavirus pandemic. The vast sections of the workforce have spent much of the year working behind their laptop screens in their home offices and video conferencing has really played a key part in keeping the economy moving, as well as being able to keep in touch with our friends and family. You know, we've. One of the things we've had 2020 this year we've seen papers written on the effects of zoom fatigue. And there are news reports, apparently, about a zoom boom in requests for cosmetic surgery. Now that people have got to look at themselves so much on their screen.
Bailer: Richard I know what I'm gonna get you for your for your birthday
Campbell: Oh, I always think you know when we were in the studio do we miss I'm retired now so I like, I, you know, in the studio we couldn't see our guests, the way we had it set up. And I think it's much easier to have a conversation when you can see people's faces, you see kind of where their living space is and, you know, people are paying attention to what's behind them. These days, so I set up my little Christmas stand behind me with my wife's little houses, you know, so, so I knew I was in zoom a lot, but we're actually connecting to our families that are scattered all over the US much more than we heard before we'd see each other, maybe once every two or three years at a reunion. And now every, every major holiday as a zoom event.
Rogers: Yeah, for sure, I think, because we've had two lockdowns now in the UK and in the first one, you know you have a zoom quiz every single week and yeah you got a bit of zoom fatigue. The second lockdown was interesting because it was very different, that wasn't going on as much as it did in the first one I think the excitement kind of disappeared a little bit the second time around. But it's been really useful to just try and keep in touch with friends and colleagues and things like that.
Bailer: I thought it was really, really brilliant, what would you all do with the selection of the highly commended awards internationally, was the CounterPoint. You know, I thought that there was this, oh there's this great technology but. And so what talk about that kind of the contrast that that was embedded in the other highly committed
Rogers: yes so our other highly commended statistic really shows the polar opposite of someone's experience throughout the coronavirus pandemic, and our other highly commended statistic is three out of five. Now, only three out of five people worldwide have basic hand washing facilities. According to the latest estimates from UNICEF. Now, during the coronavirus pandemic, we know we've been lacking in effective treatment. So countries around the world have implemented interventions such as social distancing and washing our hands has been a key piece of advice in trying to slow down the disease transmission. In the UK, we've got this phrase that the government has come up with the hands, face and space so wash your hands, cover your face and keep some space. But, you know, in a year when hand washing has been so important, this statistic is particularly powerful because it tells us about global disparities, you know, while some people have already started benefiting from an effective vaccine. Others, they can't even wash their hands, it highlights one of the biggest health inequalities that we face today and I think it's gonna be really interesting to see what happens to those statistics going forward.
Bailer: Do you think that these are you know when by doing this Do you find that there's a follow up monitoring of some of these statistics I mean this is you know there's been much you've done this for many years, and I mean it's been really interesting to follow you know he was like, what percentage of the plastics would enter the waste stream was one of the previous year. Winners of recognition. And I wonder if by doing this. It's by shining this light on some of these that these outcomes on some of these statistics. If that doesn't also encourage additional monitoring,
Rogers: I really hope so. and I really hope that by presenting these statistics we start conversations and we really hope that people pick up on them because I think sometimes, you know, we live in very privileged worlds where you know in my house I have three sinks, that I can wash my hands in, whereas some people in the world. Can't they don't have access to soap and water, and I think sometimes we don't realize that, you know, we're in our own worlds and we don't quite understand what the experiences are like for other people across the globe and so I really hope that by promoting these statistics and telling the stories we start the conversations that need to happen.
Campbell: How much coverage do you get from the media for these for when you announce these awards Is it pretty good as a growing, because that's how you start the conversations right you need media to sort of spread the word.
Rogers: It has been growing year on year, we get good coverage in the UK and then it sort of slowly filters out and even sometimes months after they will, you know, pick up on something that has quoted one of our statistics of the year so it's it's really good to know that they do pack a punch you know that people do listen to them and people, you know, they are really interested in what we choose to be our statistics of the year, and why we've chosen them so it's a really great thing to be part of and I absolutely love doing it.
Pennington: One of the stories I've been following during COVID has been the impact of various things on the mental health of individuals, whether it's children doing digital school or all of us being forced to be face to face and maybe getting cosmetic surgery, right but I wonder you're highly committed statistics for the UK. I have a really interesting symmetry in there in the numbers, but the one I wanted to talk about first was one that is related to to coronavirus virus and mental health
Rogers: Yes so 19% of adults were likely to be experiencing some sort of depression. During the coronavirus pandemic according to the Office for National Statistics. So this figure of around one in five adults has doubled from a figure of one in 10, before the pandemic. And it really provides an insight into Britain's mental health. You know me myself I've struggled with it. I was supposed to get married in August and had to postpone my wedding. My fiance had just started working for British Airways as a pilot, and then got made redundant. And you know we've all had so many things to deal with throughout this pandemic. And, and I think really shows a unique perspective on how depression has changed since before the pandemic and now over in the UK, we've had lots of discussions and increased awareness around mental health issues over the last few years and over the pandemic we have seen lots of discussion in the media about the impact of COVID on our well being, as you said you know having to work from home or the stresses having to homeschool, you know, in particular the survey found that those who are young female disabled or unable to afford an unexpected expense, were the ones who are most likely to be experiencing some form of depression.
Bailer: You know when I saw that the testing. I actually thought it was low compared to the US, and I went and looked at A. Journal of the American Medical Association there, there was a study back in. I think it started in March of pre COVID versus post COVID. And it showed 8% of us in this particular study experience depressive disorders. And then it was a three fold leap to 27% by May I think were the period of this study which was fairly early on, which indicated to me that you're doing better in the UK than you are in the know we are in the US.
Rogers: Yeah, I think it's still scary though to just see how those numbers have jumped, and to just see that the impact that hit this has had and I think that this is actually going to be a story that will go into 2021. And these long term effects of the pandemic, we will be seeing them for, for some years to come. I suspect.
Campbell: Yeah, I would have not been surprised if one of the statistics had been associated with unemployment, or with the number of people who lost jobs or, you know, the, you know, the, the, the sector, the industrial sector with the greatest loss in impact from this. I mean, certainly, as you mentioned travel the travel industry has taken a huge hit. But also, restaurants and other service providers have had a huge, huge impact.
Rogers: Yeah we did get some statistics on that and it was interesting as well. Looking at unemployment figures by different age groups how it is really impacted young people and I think a lot of young people in the hospitality industry have really been affected by it. Yeah, I mean, if they were great contenders. I think we felt that this depression statistic kind of encapsulated a lot of that. And, you know, a lot of these things unemployment is probably one of the drivers behind the depression, but you know but by choosing this sort of depression statistic allowed us to have a more general conversation about all of the issues that may be associated with it. Yeah.
Pennington: Before we go, I do want to talk about the other UK commended statistic, because as we've been in the midst of this coronavirus epidemic in the United States and globally. There's also been this global conversation around race, obviously in different contexts, and certainly the United States, it was the summer of Black Lives Matter, in many cities. And I wonder if you could, you know now talk about this other the other 19 that appear as a UK committed statistic.
Rogers: Yeah, our other 19 is 19 times, black men aged 18 to 24 in London, are on average, 19 times more likely to be stopped and searched in comparison to the city's overall population. According to a study carried out by University College London's Institute for global city policing. You know, we here in the UK had anti racism protests that took place as part of the Black Lives Matter movement, and that really has been a key event of 2020, and we just wanted to really highlight the fact that some may be aware of the issue. I don't think many would know just how much more likely a young black man is to be stopped by police. Just when going about his, his day to day life. And it really gives a snapshot of the experiences. For some, at the height of the pandemic.
Bailer: Was this a hard job. You know as you look back on this now as you reflect on the experience. You know, you had you had people that were submitting entries or nominating different options, and then you you as a group had to filter this out, I'm just curious how hard it was for you to do
Rogers: it is quite difficult and you do feel a huge sense of responsibility. You know there's statistics that we choose were sitting here talking about them and other people will be sitting here talking about their men. You know you do feel this sense of all we've got to make sure we pick the right ones and you know you as a, as I said, you really want to just try and summarize what's happened in the year or what have been the key movements what have been the key focuses you know in past years, we've had big climate change focus and things like that. Whereas this year you know it really has been coronavirus that has different experiences, and we had this big black lives matter movement as a real key event.
Pennington: Well that's all the time we have for this episode of stats and stories Jen, thank you so much for being here.
Bailer: Thank you, Jen
Pennington: Stats and Stories is a partnership between Miami University’s Departments of Statistics, and Media, Journalism and Film, and the American Statistical Association. You can follow us on Twitter, Apple podcasts, or other places you can find podcasts. If you’d like to share your thoughts on the program send your email to statsandstories@miamioh.edu or check us out at statsandstories.net, and be sure to listen for future editions of Stats and Stories, where we discuss the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics.